The United States now has more forces in the Middle East than during the First Gulf War, Second Gulf War, and the Iraq War — combined.

Photo: The aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln via Wikimedia Commons.

We’ve heard lots of talk about U.S. intentions toward Iran, including contradictory official statements (sometimes indicating negotiations, and sometimes war) as well as the usual wild speculation by journalists.

When the sports announcers are doing a bad job, a true fan turns off the sound and watches the action.

Here’s the story that we see from the action:

• The carrier strike group U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln is expected to arrive “in theater” today or tomorrow.

• U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to return from the Davos conference today (Friday), placing him in Washington in time for the weekend.

• The biggest clue: two days ago, the United States significantly increased its deployment of aerial refueling aircraft in the region. Due to their high maintenance costs and vulnerability while on the ground, such aircraft are usually deployed only in the final days before a strike, making this an especially meaningful signal. Aerial refuters are not typically used for mere misdirection due to the aforementioned cost and vulnerability.

• Last June Israel initiated the first strikes of the “Twelve Day War” against Iran’s nuclear program in the early hours of Friday morning: the beginning of the Israeli weekend, when most business are closed and children are home from school. If Israel has any say, it will likely advocate for similar timing.

• In recent conflicts, United States and Israel have tended to strike during the nighttime hours, and have demonstrated innovative capabilities never before anticipated, including in Venezuela and previously in Iran.

President Trump has promised to come to the aid of Iranian protesters, whom the regime has massacred in the thousands in recent days.

For its part, Iran has made it clear that in the event of a U.S. strike, the Islamic Republic will retaliate against Israel – in the past this has typically meant attacks on Israeli civilians.

Photo: An Iranian missile strikes Tel Aviv on June 13, 2025: Tomer Neuberg/AP.

As we wrote previously, Israel has not formally given special instructions to the “Home Front” but there is a “mood” of expectation. In a small country with compulsory military service, every family dinner is like a “low key intelligence briefing.” As a result, the Israeli “mood” often doubles as a leading indicator of world events.

Even if this assessment is correct, something as simple as a change in weather conditions could alter or delay the strike, as could political or diplomatic developments.

But for now, we are keeping our bomb shelters open, our phones charged and our kitchens stocked. And we are hoping and praying for a safe weekend ahead.

As you continue to think of the protesters in Iran, please also spare a thought or two for us.

Shabbat shalom.